Pair #11051

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-SF

What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: San Francisco
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 112135

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Maxx Crosby's next team is San Francisco before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-SF

Will San Francisco be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: San Francisco
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3374

YES ask: 0.6000
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.6000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If San Francisco is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN] Denver making the playoffs does not require Maxx Crosby to sign there, and Crosby signing with Denver does not guarantee they make the playoffs. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -70.61% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5700 + ~$0.0188 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -75.03% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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