Pair #11049

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-SF

What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: San Francisco
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6825

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Tyreek Hill's next team is San Francisco before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-SF

Will San Francisco be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: San Francisco
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3374

YES ask: 0.6000
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.6000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If San Francisco is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-DEN/KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN] Whether Denver makes the playoffs has no logical bearing on whether Tyreek Hill signs with Denver, and vice versa. These are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -64.79% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6000 + ~$0.0168 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -69.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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