Pair #11047

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-TB

What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Tampa Bay
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 80763

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Maxx Crosby's next team is Tampa Bay before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXSB-27-TB

Will Tampa Bay win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Tampa Bay
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 1006795

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tampa Bay wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Maxx Crosby signing with Denver does not logically necessitate a Super Bowl win, nor does winning the Super Bowl require Crosby to be on the team. No logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -5.44% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200 + ~$0.0014 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -9.86% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue