Antecedent (if this happens)
KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-TB
Will Tampa Bay have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?
Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Tampa Bay
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2138
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tampa Bay has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXSB-27-TB
Will Tampa Bay win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?
Series: KXSB
Entity: Tampa Bay
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 1006795
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tampa Bay wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Having the best regular season record does not guarantee winning the Super Bowl — Denver could lose in the playoffs. Conversely, winning the Super Bowl does not require having the best regular season record. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-2.09%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0100
+ ~$0.0021 est. fees
Days to maturity:
207
Hurdle yield:
4.46%
Excess yield:
-6.55%
BELOW HURDLE