Pair #11043

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-TB

What will be Alec Pierce's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Tampa Bay
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1232

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alec Pierce's next team is Tampa Bay before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-TB

Will Tampa Bay have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?

Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Tampa Bay
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2138

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tampa Bay has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-DEN/KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN] Having the best NFL regular season record does not require Alec Pierce to sign with Denver, and Pierce signing with Denver does not guarantee the best record. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -5.44% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200 + ~$0.0014 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -9.86% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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