Pair #11038

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-TB

What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Tampa Bay
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 80763

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Maxx Crosby's next team is Tampa Bay before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-TB

Will Tampa Bay be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Tampa Bay
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1637

YES ask: 0.3700
NO ask: 0.6400
Last: 0.3700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tampa Bay is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN] Denver making the playoffs does not require Maxx Crosby to sign there, and Crosby signing with Denver does not guarantee they make the playoffs. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -57.85% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3700 + ~$0.0163 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -62.27% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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