Pair #11035

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-CIN

What will be Alec Pierce's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Cincinnati
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 585

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Alec Pierce's next team is Cincinnati before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXSB-27-CIN

Will Cincinnati win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Cincinnati
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 2154371

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cincinnati wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] A player signing with Denver does not logically necessitate Denver winning the championship, nor does winning the championship require any specific player signing. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -12.84% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0500 + ~$0.0033 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -17.26% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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