Pair #11033

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-CIN

What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Cincinnati
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3281

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Tyreek Hill's next team is Cincinnati before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXSB-27-CIN

Will Cincinnati win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Cincinnati
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 2154371

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cincinnati wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Tyreek Hill signing with Denver does not logically necessitate Denver winning the Super Bowl, nor does Denver winning the Super Bowl require Hill to be on the roster. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -10.67% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0500 + ~$0.0033 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -15.11% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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