Pair #11032

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-CIN

Will Cincinnati have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?

Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Cincinnati
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4139

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cincinnati has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXSB-27-CIN

Will Cincinnati win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Cincinnati
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 2154371

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cincinnati wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Having the best regular season record does not guarantee winning the Super Bowl — Denver could lose in the playoffs. Conversely, winning the Super Bowl does not require having the best regular season record. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -2.76% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100 + ~$0.0060 est. fees
Days to maturity: 207
Hurdle yield: 4.46%
Excess yield: -7.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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