Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-CIN
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?
Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Cincinnati
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 109889
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Maxx Crosby's next team is Cincinnati before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-CIN
Will Cincinnati win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Cincinnati
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 236030
YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Cincinnati wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN] Whether Maxx Crosby signs with Denver is independent of whether Denver wins the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-19.44%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0800
+ ~$0.0052 est. fees
Days to maturity:
138
Hurdle yield:
4.42%
Excess yield:
-23.86%
BELOW HURDLE