Pair #11022

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-CIN

Will Cincinnati win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Cincinnati
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 236030

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cincinnati wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-CIN

Will Cincinnati have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?

Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Cincinnati
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4139

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cincinnati has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN/KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN] Winning the AFC Championship does not require having the best regular season record, and having the best record does not guarantee winning the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -8.46% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400 + ~$0.0114 est. fees
Days to maturity: 207
Hurdle yield: 4.46%
Excess yield: -12.92% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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