Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-WAS
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?
Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Washington
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2985
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Alec Pierce's next team is Washington before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXSB-27-WAS
Will Washington win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?
Series: KXSB
Entity: Washington
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 1555761
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Washington wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] A player signing with Denver does not logically necessitate Denver winning the championship, nor does winning the championship require any specific player signing. No logical implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-8.00%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0300
+ ~$0.0020 est. fees
Days to maturity:
138
Hurdle yield:
4.42%
Excess yield:
-12.42%
BELOW HURDLE