Pair #11017

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-WAS

What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Washington
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 10329

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

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Rules

If Tyreek Hill's next team is Washington before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXSB-27-WAS

Will Washington win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Washington
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 1555761

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Washington wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Tyreek Hill signing with Denver does not logically necessitate Denver winning the Super Bowl, nor does Denver winning the Super Bowl require Hill to be on the roster. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -2.85% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100 + ~$0.0034 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -7.29% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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