Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-WAS
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?
Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Washington
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2985
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Alec Pierce's next team is Washington before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-WAS
Will Washington have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?
Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Washington
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1132
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Washington has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-DEN/KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN] Having the best NFL regular season record does not require Alec Pierce to sign with Denver, and Pierce signing with Denver does not guarantee the best record. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-5.44%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0200
+ ~$0.0014 est. fees
Days to maturity:
138
Hurdle yield:
4.42%
Excess yield:
-9.86%
BELOW HURDLE