Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-WAS
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?
Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Washington
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 56551
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Maxx Crosby's next team is Washington before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-WAS
Will Washington be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?
Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Washington
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5154
YES ask: 0.3600
NO ask: 0.6600
Last: 0.3600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Washington is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN] Denver making the playoffs does not require Maxx Crosby to sign there, and Crosby signing with Denver does not guarantee they make the playoffs. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-57.02%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.3600
+ ~$0.0161 est. fees
Days to maturity:
138
Hurdle yield:
4.42%
Excess yield:
-61.44%
BELOW HURDLE