Pair #11009

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-WAS

What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Washington
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 14033

YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 0.7500
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Stefon Diggs's next team is Washington before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-WAS

Will Washington be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Washington
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5154

YES ask: 0.3600
NO ask: 0.6600
Last: 0.3600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Washington is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-DEN/KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN] Whether Denver makes the playoffs has no logical bearing on whether Stefon Diggs signs with Denver, and vice versa. These are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -29.17% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1100 + ~$0.0293 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -33.59% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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