Pair #11

Antecedent (implies)

KXATP1RANK-26DEC31-DMED

Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026?

Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-12-31T17:00:00Z
Volume: 691

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Daniil Medvedev is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (implied)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-DMED

Will Daniil Medvedev win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6982

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Daniil Medvedev wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-16T22:50:30Z

Reasoning: A player can be ranked #1 without winning a Grand Slam, and winning a Grand Slam does not guarantee being #1 on Dec 31. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -9.26% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: 289
Hurdle yield: 4.17%
Excess yield: -13.44% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-03-17T09:53:45Z

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