Pair #10984

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DET

What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Detroit
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 92086

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Maxx Crosby's next team is Detroit before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DET

Will Detroit be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Detroit
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1963

YES ask: 0.6500
NO ask: 0.3600
Last: 0.6500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Detroit is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN] Denver making the playoffs does not require Maxx Crosby to sign there, and Crosby signing with Denver does not guarantee they make the playoffs. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -74.07% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6500 + ~$0.0159 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -78.49% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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