Pair #10973

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-LAC

What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Los Angeles C
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 21090

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyreek Hill's next team is Los Angeles C before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCWEST-27-LAC

Will Los Angeles C win the Pro Football AFC West Division?

Series: KXNFLAFCWEST
Entity: Los Angeles C
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 29351

YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.6900
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Los Angeles C wins the Pro Football AFC West Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-DEN/KXNFLAFCWEST-27-DEN] Tyreek Hill signing with Denver does not logically necessitate Denver winning the AFC West, nor does Denver winning the AFC West require Hill to be on the team. These are correlated at best, not logically necessary.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -45.82% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3100 + ~$0.0159 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -50.26% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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