Pair #10969

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-LAC

What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Los Angeles C
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1584

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stefon Diggs's next team is Los Angeles C before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-LAC

Will Los Angeles C have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?

Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Los Angeles C
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2492

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Los Angeles C has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-DEN/KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN] Having the best NFL regular season record does not require Stefon Diggs to sign with Denver, and Diggs signing with Denver does not guarantee the best record. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -12.84% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0500 + ~$0.0033 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -17.26% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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