Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-LAC
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?
Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Los Angeles C
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 833
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Alec Pierce's next team is Los Angeles C before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-LAC
Will Los Angeles C be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?
Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Los Angeles C
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3683
YES ask: 0.6500
NO ask: 0.3600
Last: 0.6500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Los Angeles C is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-DEN/KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN] Denver making the playoffs does not require Alec Pierce to sign there, and Pierce signing with Denver does not guarantee they make the playoffs. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-74.07%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.6500
+ ~$0.0159 est. fees
Days to maturity:
138
Hurdle yield:
4.42%
Excess yield:
-78.49%
BELOW HURDLE