Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-LAC
Will Los Angeles C win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Los Angeles C
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 104135
YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Los Angeles C wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNFLAFCWEST-27-LAC
Will Los Angeles C win the Pro Football AFC West Division?
Series: KXNFLAFCWEST
Entity: Los Angeles C
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 29351
YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.6900
Last: 0.3200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Los Angeles C wins the Pro Football AFC West Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN/KXNFLAFCWEST-27-DEN] In the NFL, a team can win the AFC Championship without winning their division (wild card teams can advance through the playoffs to win the conference). And winning the AFC West division does not guarantee winning the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-30.79%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.2100
+ ~$0.0221 est. fees
Days to maturity:
207
Hurdle yield:
4.46%
Excess yield:
-35.25%
BELOW HURDLE