Pair #10963

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-LAC

Will Los Angeles C win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Los Angeles C
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 104135

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Los Angeles C wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCWEST-27-LAC

Will Los Angeles C win the Pro Football AFC West Division?

Series: KXNFLAFCWEST
Entity: Los Angeles C
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 29351

YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.6900
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Los Angeles C wins the Pro Football AFC West Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN/KXNFLAFCWEST-27-DEN] In the NFL, a team can win the AFC Championship without winning their division (wild card teams can advance through the playoffs to win the conference). And winning the AFC West division does not guarantee winning the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -30.79% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2100 + ~$0.0221 est. fees
Days to maturity: 207
Hurdle yield: 4.46%
Excess yield: -35.25% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue