Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-LAC
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?
Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Los Angeles C
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 833
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Alec Pierce's next team is Los Angeles C before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-LAC
Will Los Angeles C win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Los Angeles C
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 104135
YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Los Angeles C wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-DEN/KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN] Whether Alec Pierce signs with Denver is independent of whether Denver wins the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-27.18%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.1200
+ ~$0.0074 est. fees
Days to maturity:
138
Hurdle yield:
4.42%
Excess yield:
-31.60%
BELOW HURDLE