Pair #10961

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-LAC

What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Los Angeles C
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 30856

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maxx Crosby's next team is Los Angeles C before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-LAC

Will Los Angeles C win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Los Angeles C
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 104135

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Los Angeles C wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN] Whether Maxx Crosby signs with Denver is independent of whether Denver wins the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -27.18% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1200 + ~$0.0074 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -31.60% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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