Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-MIN
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?
Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Minnesota
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 20048
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Maxx Crosby's next team is Minnesota before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-MIN
Will Minnesota be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?
Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Minnesota
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 18419
YES ask: 0.4000
NO ask: 0.6300
Last: 0.4000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Minnesota is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN] Denver making the playoffs does not require Maxx Crosby to sign there, and Crosby signing with Denver does not guarantee they make the playoffs. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-60.21%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.4000
+ ~$0.0168 est. fees
Days to maturity:
138
Hurdle yield:
4.42%
Excess yield:
-64.63%
BELOW HURDLE