Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-PHI
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?
Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Philadelphia
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 190059
YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.1200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Maxx Crosby's next team is Philadelphia before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXSB-27-PHI
Will Philadelphia win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?
Series: KXSB
Entity: Philadelphia
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 872092
YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Philadelphia wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Maxx Crosby signing with Denver does not logically necessitate a Super Bowl win, nor does winning the Super Bowl require Crosby to be on the team. No logical necessity.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-8.63%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0300
+ ~$0.0047 est. fees
Days to maturity:
138
Hurdle yield:
4.42%
Excess yield:
-13.05%
BELOW HURDLE