Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-PHI
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?
Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Philadelphia
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 579
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Alec Pierce's next team is Philadelphia before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-PHI
Will Philadelphia have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?
Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Philadelphia
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8541
YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Philadelphia has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-DEN/KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN] Having the best NFL regular season record does not require Alec Pierce to sign with Denver, and Pierce signing with Denver does not guarantee the best record. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-15.12%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0600
+ ~$0.0039 est. fees
Days to maturity:
138
Hurdle yield:
4.42%
Excess yield:
-19.54%
BELOW HURDLE