Pair #10934

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-PHI

What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Philadelphia
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 190059

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Maxx Crosby's next team is Philadelphia before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-PHI

Will Philadelphia be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Philadelphia
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3794

YES ask: 0.6100
NO ask: 0.4200
Last: 0.6100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Philadelphia is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN] Denver making the playoffs does not require Maxx Crosby to sign there, and Crosby signing with Denver does not guarantee they make the playoffs. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -71.53% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5900 + ~$0.0180 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -75.95% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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