Pair #10925

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-NO

What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: New Orleans
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1587

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Maxx Crosby's next team is New Orleans before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-NO

Will New Orleans have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?

Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: New Orleans
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2281

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If New Orleans has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN] Having the best NFL regular season record does not require Maxx Crosby to sign with Denver, and Crosby signing with Denver does not guarantee the best record. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -5.44% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200 + ~$0.0014 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -9.86% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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