Pair #10921

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-NO

What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: New Orleans
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1587

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Maxx Crosby's next team is New Orleans before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-NO

Will New Orleans be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: New Orleans
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 21967

YES ask: 0.4000
NO ask: 0.6300
Last: 0.4000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If New Orleans is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN] Denver making the playoffs does not require Maxx Crosby to sign there, and Crosby signing with Denver does not guarantee they make the playoffs. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -60.21% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4000 + ~$0.0168 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -64.63% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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