Pair #10917

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DAL

What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Dallas
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 245069

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Maxx Crosby's next team is Dallas before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXSB-27-DAL

Will Dallas win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Dallas
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 2235946

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Dallas wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Maxx Crosby signing with Denver does not logically necessitate a Super Bowl win, nor does winning the Super Bowl require Crosby to be on the team. No logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -10.47% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400 + ~$0.0027 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -14.89% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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