Pair #10912

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DAL

What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Dallas
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 245069

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Maxx Crosby's next team is Dallas before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DAL

Will Dallas have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?

Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Dallas
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3339

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Dallas has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN] Having the best NFL regular season record does not require Maxx Crosby to sign with Denver, and Crosby signing with Denver does not guarantee the best record. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -10.47% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400 + ~$0.0027 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -14.89% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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