Pair #1091

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-CDAV

Valspar Championship: Will Cameron Davis make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Cameron Davis
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1145

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cameron Davis makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-CDAV

Will Cameron Davis lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Cameron Davis
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2805

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cameron Davis is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:17:08Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could theoretically withdraw or be disqualified before or during Round 2), and making the cut does not require leading after Round 1. No strict logical implication.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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