Pair #10908

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DAL

What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Dallas
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 245069

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Maxx Crosby's next team is Dallas before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DAL

Will Dallas be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Dallas
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 26300

YES ask: 0.5200
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Dallas is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN] Denver making the playoffs does not require Maxx Crosby to sign there, and Crosby signing with Denver does not guarantee they make the playoffs. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -67.94% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5200 + ~$0.0175 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -72.36% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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