Pair #109

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXSB-27-DEN

Will Denver win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 2194921

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN

Will Denver be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3687

YES ask: 0.5900
NO ask: 0.4200
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:01:28Z

Reasoning: Winning the Super Bowl (Pro Football Championship) requires making the playoffs. So if Denver wins the championship, they must have been a playoff qualifier. However, making the playoffs does not guarantee winning the championship.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -45.58% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5400
Days to maturity: 259
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -49.87% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T11:43:58Z

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