Pair #10891

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNCAAFB10-26-IND

Will Indiana win the College Football Big Ten Championship?

Series: KXNCAAFB10
Entity: Indiana
Expiration: 2026-12-06T04:30:00Z
Volume: 6465

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.7700
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Indiana wins the 2026 College Football Big Ten Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-IND

Will Indiana qualify for the College Football Playoffs?

Series: KXNCAAFPLAYOFF
Entity: Indiana
Expiration: 2026-12-15T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4840

YES ask: 0.7200
NO ask: 0.2900
Last: 0.7200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Indiana is one of the teams to qualify for the College Football Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNCAAFB10-26-MICH/KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-MICH] Teams can qualify for the CFP without winning their conference championship (at-large bids), and winning the Big 10 championship does not guarantee a CFP berth in all scenarios. Neither event logically necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -65.45% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4900 + ~$0.0265 est. fees
Days to maturity: 143
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -69.88% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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