Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNCAAFB10-26-IND
Will Indiana win the College Football Big Ten Championship?
Series: KXNCAAFB10
Entity: Indiana
Expiration: 2026-12-06T04:30:00Z
Volume: 6465
YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.7700
Last: 0.2400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Indiana wins the 2026 College Football Big Ten Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-IND
Will Indiana qualify for the College Football Playoffs?
Series: KXNCAAFPLAYOFF
Entity: Indiana
Expiration: 2026-12-15T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4840
YES ask: 0.7200
NO ask: 0.2900
Last: 0.7200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Indiana is one of the teams to qualify for the College Football Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNCAAFB10-26-MICH/KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-MICH] Teams can qualify for the CFP without winning their conference championship (at-large bids), and winning the Big 10 championship does not guarantee a CFP berth in all scenarios. Neither event logically necessitates the other.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-65.45%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.4900
+ ~$0.0265 est. fees
Days to maturity:
143
Hurdle yield:
4.42%
Excess yield:
-69.88%
BELOW HURDLE