Pair #10877

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-HOU

What will be Alec Pierce's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Houston
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 596

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alec Pierce's next team is Houston before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-HOU

Will Houston win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Houston
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 222815

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Houston wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-DEN/KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN] Whether Alec Pierce signs with Denver is independent of whether Denver wins the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -23.45% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1000 + ~$0.0063 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -27.87% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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