Pair #10874

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-HOU

What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Houston
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4443

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tyreek Hill's next team is Houston before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-HOU

Will Houston win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Houston
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 222815

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Houston wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-DEN/KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN] Whether Tyreek Hill signs with Denver is independent of whether Denver wins the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -19.71% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1000 + ~$0.0063 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -24.15% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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