Pair #10873

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-HOU

Will Houston win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Houston
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 222815

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Houston wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-HOU

Will Houston have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?

Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Houston
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5578

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Houston has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN/KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN] Winning the AFC Championship does not require having the best regular season record, and having the best record does not guarantee winning the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): 3.69% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9700 + ~$0.0097 est. fees
Days to maturity: 207
Hurdle yield: 4.46%
Excess yield: -0.77% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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