Pair #10869

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-CHI

What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Chicago
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 9679

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tyreek Hill's next team is Chicago before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXSB-27-CHI

Will Chicago win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Chicago
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 1890001

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Chicago wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Tyreek Hill signing with Denver does not logically necessitate Denver winning the Super Bowl, nor does Denver winning the Super Bowl require Hill to be on the roster. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -5.03% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200 + ~$0.0041 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -9.47% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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