Pair #10859

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-CLE

What will be Alec Pierce's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Cleveland
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 690

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alec Pierce's next team is Cleveland before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXSB-27-CLE

Will Cleveland win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Cleveland
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 404958

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cleveland wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] A player signing with Denver does not logically necessitate Denver winning the championship, nor does winning the championship require any specific player signing. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -2.77% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100 + ~$0.0007 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -7.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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