Pair #10858

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-CLE

What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Cleveland
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 57983

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maxx Crosby's next team is Cleveland before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXSB-27-CLE

Will Cleveland win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Cleveland
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 404958

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cleveland wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Maxx Crosby signing with Denver does not logically necessitate a Super Bowl win, nor does winning the Super Bowl require Crosby to be on the team. No logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -0.37% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000 + ~$0.0014 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -4.79% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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