Pair #10844

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-CLE

What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Cleveland
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1740

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Stefon Diggs's next team is Cleveland before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-CLE

Will Cleveland win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Cleveland
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 73768

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cleveland wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-DEN/KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN] Whether Stefon Diggs signs with Denver is independent of whether Denver wins the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -2.77% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100 + ~$0.0007 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -7.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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