Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-CLE
Will Cleveland win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Cleveland
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 73768
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Cleveland wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-CLE
Will Cleveland have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?
Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Cleveland
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 572
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Cleveland has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN/KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN] Winning the AFC Championship does not require having the best regular season record, and having the best record does not guarantee winning the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-1.86%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0100
+ ~$0.0007 est. fees
Days to maturity:
207
Hurdle yield:
4.46%
Excess yield:
-6.32%
BELOW HURDLE