KXNCAAF-27-CAL
Will California win the College Football Playoff National Championship?
Series: KXNCAAF
Entity: California
Expiration: 2027-01-26T04:00:00Z
Volume: 14049
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-CAL
Will California qualify for the College Football Playoffs?
Series: KXNCAAFPLAYOFF
Entity: California
Expiration: 2026-12-15T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2654
YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0700
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNCAAF-27-MICH/KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-MICH] Winning the CFP National Championship requires having qualified for the College Football Playoffs. So winning the championship necessitates playoff qualification, but not vice versa.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-14.18%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0800
+ ~$0.0052 est. fees
Days to maturity:
195
Hurdle yield:
4.45%
Excess yield:
-18.64%
BELOW HURDLE
Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z