Pair #10839

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNCAAF-27-PSU

Will Penn St. win the College Football Playoff National Championship?

Series: KXNCAAF
Entity: Penn St.
Expiration: 2027-01-26T04:00:00Z
Volume: 109831

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Penn St. wins the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-PSU

Will Penn St. qualify for the College Football Playoffs?

Series: KXNCAAFPLAYOFF
Entity: Penn St.
Expiration: 2026-12-15T15:00:00Z
Volume: 10231

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.7600
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Penn St. is one of the teams to qualify for the College Football Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNCAAF-27-MICH/KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-MICH] Winning the CFP National Championship requires having qualified for the College Football Playoffs. So winning the championship necessitates playoff qualification, but not vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -34.66% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2400 + ~$0.0138 est. fees
Days to maturity: 194
Hurdle yield: 4.45%
Excess yield: -39.11% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z

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