Pair #10838

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNCAAF-27-FSU

Will Florida St. win the College Football Playoff National Championship?

Series: KXNCAAF
Entity: Florida St.
Expiration: 2027-01-26T04:00:00Z
Volume: 24921

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Florida St. wins the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-FSU

Will Florida St. qualify for the College Football Playoffs?

Series: KXNCAAFPLAYOFF
Entity: Florida St.
Expiration: 2026-12-15T15:00:00Z
Volume: 496

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Florida St. is one of the teams to qualify for the College Football Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNCAAF-27-MICH/KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-MICH] Winning the CFP National Championship requires having qualified for the College Football Playoffs. So winning the championship necessitates playoff qualification, but not vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -9.27% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0500 + ~$0.0033 est. fees
Days to maturity: 195
Hurdle yield: 4.45%
Excess yield: -13.72% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z

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