Pair #10836

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNCAAF-27-CLEM

Will Clemson win the College Football Playoff National Championship?

Series: KXNCAAF
Entity: Clemson
Expiration: 2027-01-26T04:00:00Z
Volume: 154603

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Clemson wins the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-CLEM

Will Clemson qualify for the College Football Playoffs?

Series: KXNCAAFPLAYOFF
Entity: Clemson
Expiration: 2026-12-15T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1728

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8700
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Clemson is one of the teams to qualify for the College Football Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNCAAF-27-MICH/KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-MICH] Winning the CFP National Championship requires having qualified for the College Football Playoffs. So winning the championship necessitates playoff qualification, but not vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -26.74% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1700 + ~$0.0099 est. fees
Days to maturity: 194
Hurdle yield: 4.45%
Excess yield: -31.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z

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