Pair #10835

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNCAAF-27-GT

Will Georgia Tech win the College Football Playoff National Championship?

Series: KXNCAAF
Entity: Georgia Tech
Expiration: 2027-01-26T04:00:00Z
Volume: 61119

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Georgia Tech wins the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-GT

Will Georgia Tech qualify for the College Football Playoffs?

Series: KXNCAAFPLAYOFF
Entity: Georgia Tech
Expiration: 2026-12-15T15:00:00Z
Volume: 844

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Georgia Tech is one of the teams to qualify for the College Football Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNCAAF-27-MICH/KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-MICH] Winning the CFP National Championship requires having qualified for the College Football Playoffs. So winning the championship necessitates playoff qualification, but not vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -10.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0600 + ~$0.0039 est. fees
Days to maturity: 195
Hurdle yield: 4.45%
Excess yield: -15.41% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z

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