Pair #10833

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNCAAF-27-UNT

Will North Texas win the College Football Playoff National Championship?

Series: KXNCAAF
Entity: North Texas
Expiration: 2027-01-26T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3102

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If North Texas wins the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-UNT

Will North Texas qualify for the College Football Playoffs?

Series: KXNCAAFPLAYOFF
Entity: North Texas
Expiration: 2026-12-15T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2735

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If North Texas is one of the teams to qualify for the College Football Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNCAAF-27-MICH/KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-MICH] Winning the CFP National Championship requires having qualified for the College Football Playoffs. So winning the championship necessitates playoff qualification, but not vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -5.73% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0300 + ~$0.0020 est. fees
Days to maturity: 195
Hurdle yield: 4.45%
Excess yield: -10.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z

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